A Recent Success
Federer came up with some of the answers on May 20, when he ended Nadal's 81-match winning streak on clay by prevailing in their Hamburg Master's final, 2-6, 6-2, 6-0. Most improved was Roger's backhand, which he hit more consistently and aggressively, especially on those balls approaching shoulder height that are difficult, but not impossible, to hit with power and topspin. Federer seems to have raised the maximum height at which he can hit an aggressive backhand.
Roger also came to net fairly often (for clay), which, if you can execute it, is probably the single best tactic to defeat a player with exceptional defensive skills like Rafa. When you hit a shot at the net, you're hitting from roughly half as far away from your opponent, thereby giving him half as much time to run your shot down. The problem with attacking the net on clay is that your opponent has a little more time to get to your approach shot (or serve) and set up to hit a tough passing shot. After their first set in Hamburg, Roger chose his moments well, coming in behind strong approach shots.
Slice Options
Against a topspin hitter like Nadal, especially a two-hander on the backhand, another tactic you'd expect Federer to try is a low slice. A good slice skids quite low on clay, making it difficult for the opponent to hit topspin and causing all kinds of trouble for anyone trying to hit the ball with two hands. Many were surprised Roger didn't try this more in 2006, but Rafa's skill at returning low slices with a one-handed slice of his own might account for Roger's thinking. (Nadal is much more versatile than a true clay-court specialist.) Nonetheless, if Nadal is beating him with high topspins, Federer might find decisive relief by turning some key rallies into slicing contests instead.
In addition to making it more difficult for Nadal to hit topspin, a low slice, if hit short, can force Nadal forward, where he'd rather not be. The shortest of slices would be a drop shot, but given Nadal's exceptional quickness, it will take an excellent drop shot to beat him outright. Federer won't need an outright winner though, as long as his short slice or drop shot doesn't give Nadal time to set up a strong reply. If Roger forces Rafa to hit him less than a great approach shot, the percentages will favor Roger on the passing shot or lob.
The Dream Final
Of course, there's no guarantee that Roger and Rafa will both make it to the Roland Garros final. If they don't, the ultimate drama will be somewhat diminished, but if it's Federer, not Nadal, who makes it to the final, our consolation will be a greater likelihood of seeing him take one of the landmark singles titles in tennis history.
